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Lebanon economy reels under hardships PDF
Written by Herald Sun   

From correspondents in Beirut

LEBANON is reeling under severe hardships nearly two months after an Israeli offensive destroyed much of its infrastructure and devastated its economy.

Since a UN-brokered ceasefire put an end to Israel's month-long war on the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah on August 14, economic indicators have slid in the areas of exports, tourism, ports and airport activities and government revenues.

Material damage from the offensive on Lebanon has been estimated at at least $US3.6 billion ($4.8 billion), and in the aftermath of the war, the country is suffering a new aggravation of its chronic drain-brain.

"Fifty-seven per cent of Lebanese aged between 20 and 24 are considering leaving the country," suggested a new poll carried out after the war for the Lebanese economic monthly magazine Le Commerce du Levant.

The International Monetary Fund is expecting a 3.2 per cent recession for 2006, against a three per cent growth rate that had been forecast by the world body prior to the Israeli offensive.

In September, th ratings agency Standard and Poor's described its outlook on Lebanon as "negative" and cautioned that "medium-term challenges for Lebanon remain severe, with much depending on how quickly the economy recovers and on donor support for the rebuilding effort."

Bank Audi, a leading Lebanese bank, said the country's growth rate will be flat in 2006, whereas it had been forecast to reach a significant five per cent before the hostilities began.

The World Bank, which just allocated $US70 million ($94 million) to rebuilding efforts in Lebanon, said the country was one of the world's most indebted, with a public debt which spiralled to $US38.6 billion ($51.8 billion) - or more than 180 per cent of gross domestic product.

Lebanon's finance minister said last month the offensive and Israel's blockade on the country had increased Lebanon's public debt to $US41 billion ($55 billion).

Donors have pledged significant assistance to Lebanon amounting to about $US1.8 billion ($2.4 billion), but only a small part of emergency aid has so far reached the country, experts said.

"The country cannot borrow more in order to rebuild," said a recent World Bank report, while total budget deficit is expected to double to $US3.85 billion ($5.17 billion) this year compared to the previous year.

And leading economist Kamal Hamdan said that "it is not enough to rebuild, at a time when productive sectors remain blocked".

"Economic revival cannot be limited to reconstruction," he said.

"We should not either just return to the pre-war situation, because we need to relaunch long-awaited economic and institutional reforms in order to achieve growth and use aid properly."

"If not, Lebanon may sink deeper into economic crisis, which in turn could increase internal conflicts and recreate circumstances which would allow foreign interventions," he said.

Five weeks of political in-fighting have aggravated the rift among the country's various political forces, including Hezbollah which insists on keeping its weapons despite domestic and international demands for its disarming.

And Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah stirred another controversy by recently calling for a government of national unity to bring into the cabinet his allies in an apparent bid to increase the Shiite group's share in decision-making.

"Reconstruction and economic revival require investor confidence, and this confidence is in turn linked to local and international political conditions," Mr Hamdan said.

 
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