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2007 could be the most critical year in the history of Lebanon and the region. From Beirut to the Palestinian Territories through Iraq, the region seems to be in one package under several titles. Every country could affect the situation in the other two countries.
Dec. 01, 2006- But the situation in Lebanon remains the most dangerous due to the complications and the repercussions of any radical change. The belligerents have agreed to a truce during the festive season, until the return of the pilgrims from Mecca. But right after that, in the first week of January, the opposition promises a new phase in its movement. The situation is also open to new initiatives for a peaceful settlement of the crisis.
If the crises in Iraq and Palestine may need years to be solved, the Lebanese problem has to find its final direction during the year 2007. In this year the process has to be completed of setting up the tribunal of international character to examine the assassination of Rafik Hariri, because there are dates to be respected. And after that, many issues have to be tackled, since a closure of the tribunal issue does not mean the end of Lebanon’s problems or the end of the bloody cycle of assassinations and attempted assassinations which have bedeviled the country since October 2004. On the contrary, it could launch a new phase of killings to show a defiance of the court. But despite the black tunnel the Lebanese must still pass through, the distant horizon is clear and hopes could grow for the future of the country.
And what directions might Damascus’ policy take? These may come in contradictory ways and won’t necessarily be in the expected directions. Will its relations with Lebanon continue to be acrimonious? And will new doors of cooperation with Washington open for it that lead to radical changes in its regional policies?
For all these perspectives the first half of 2007 will be very important, even dangerous, for Lebanon.
Syria was waiting to see how the Bush Administration would act after the victory of the Democrats in Congress. President Bashar Assad was expecting to see a change, a compromise with Washington that will bring him some stability and turn the pressures against his regime intto benefits, especially on the level of relations with Lebanon. Iran’s nuclear program
The Iranian nuclear issue is also important in this regional game and it has to be solved during 2007. In this dispute, Lebanon is very important for the regional balance of power as seen from Teheran. At this level the situation is very complicated; the buildup of Western forces in the Gulf gives the impression that the Americans are preparing a military solution for this issue. The Bush Administration, against all expectations and wishes, has not decided to withdraw from the Gulf starting from Iraq. On the contrary it has decided to strengthen its forces in the region. And this decision confirms the confrontational face of George Bush’s strategy, which will not change in the near future, and gives an idea of how he could deal with regional challenges from Iran to Beirut. Any deterioration in the situation in the Gulf or any US strike against the Iranian nuclear program will have repercussions on the Lebanese scene, from demonstrations against the Americans to security-political action aimed at creating conflicts in other parts of the Arab world that will distract Washington’s attention from its offensive against Teheran. But the way this issue ends will surely affect the situation in the whole region from the Gulf to Gaza. It will also influence the balance of power in Iraq and might perhaps turn it into a local issue where the Americans could impose their own will on the situation. But this hypothesis is too good to be true.
Now the current pro-American Iraqi government is facing new challenges related to the situation after the death of Saddam Hussein.
The determination to implement the death sentence against him is another decision in the process of confrontation with Baath Party supporters and with the Sunnites in general. This measure could lead to the increase of violence in Iraq, but it might end the dream of a new era of Saddamism without Saddam. Some Iraqi optimists have suggested that Washington might do a deal with Saddam, giving him his life in exchange for his help in reducing Sunnite resistance to the occupation, and in order to lessen Iranian influence. But this scenario is not based on a good knowledge of the Bush Administration’s mind-set. This team has proved that it has a clear line in its policy. The targets have been defined from the beginning and the way to achieve them was also set, and there is no way that it will make deals that don’t conform with its preconceived ideas. The Palestinian issue
This issue has been especially acute since the Palestinian elections that brought Hamas to power, and 2007 may witness another election that will change the governmental and parliamentary situation. President Mahmoud Abbas has called for early elections and he is determined to hold them as soon as possible to introduce a change in Palestinian political life and to re-launch the peace process with Israel. The atmosphere is suitable for a resumption of peace talks and Israel says it is ready to make concessions to Abbas.
But this conflict has no clear path and many issues could disrupt the process at any moment. Any external changes, from Lebanon to Iraq and Iran, could affect what happens on the Palestinian-Israeli scene, but there could also be unexpected upsets on the internal level, like the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1995, for example, which might bring the whole peace process to a dead stop.
2007 will be a decisive year for the whole region, and since it is so critical, a lot of blood could flow before the year ends. n
Edgard JallaIf the crises in Iraq and Palestine may need years to be solved, the Lebanese problem has to find its final direction during the year
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