Home  Opinion What is going on in Lebanon? Is there a solution? |
|
What is going on in Lebanon? Is there a solution? |
|
|
Written by SL
|
The last weeks did show how deep the political divisions have reached in Lebanon. The Metn and the Beirut elections seem to have pushed the tension to their utmost.
Beyond all the appearance and political gains on both sides, the biggest loser is Lebanon. What appeared in the campaigns of both sides was an omnipresent reference to the Civil War. Where many chapters from that dark period of our recent history seemed to be more relevant than any other issue on the present political agenda. The army battles with Fateh el Islam in Nahr el Bared seemed to be non-existent. As if the two seats were more important than the long and costly battle the army has been stuck in for the last couple of months.
Each party seems to hold to its position and compromise has been totally rejected by all parties. When we look at the political divide we notice that the parties have been modified by two main events. The Celle Saint Cloud meeting, where some parties from both sides expressed views not in-line with their previous positions. And the Beirut and Metn by-elections, where each party in the ruling or opposition parties took a distinctive position.
The declared position towards the elections was that the opposition didn't want to participate in the elections due to the fact that the president did not sign the decree calling for these elections. But then the candidates came from both opposition and ruling parties.
The divisions now seem to be drawn along two lines inside the Muslim and the Christians parties. That is a good sign for the country, as it seem to create a political and non-sectarian divide.
But when we look closer, we notice that the division among the Sunnis and the Shiites is so great that this may be what pushed Amal and Hezbollah not to demonstrate any public support to either candidates. And on the other side the Sunni clerics publicly voiced their support to the Future Movement candidate. Which for many is a breach to the separation that should exist between religion and politics. But that will certainly insure that neither of the Shiites parties will bring any support to the Beirut opposition candidate.
On the other hand the Showdown in the Metn region seems to bring much more into the balance. Both sides where pushed to run into the election with their full weight. As if both side political future was on the brink. Aoun could not accept the allusions to his role in Pierre Jemayel assassination, nor the assumption at his lessened support among the Christians. Amin Gemayel was also pushed to the race, since his familial political party, the Kataeb, is on the stake, even pushing his son Sami would have endangered the latter future political role. Amin seemed to count on a Murr and Tachnag less marked support to Aoun, and that won't be clear until the election results. The biggest loser are the Maronites and the Maronite Patriarch who tried to bring both sides to an agreement, but apparently the gap was too deep. The only person who may gain from this showdown is Samir Geagea.
After this quick look at the political scene, one should look more at the daily life of the Lebanese population. After Kouchner's allusion at the possibility of a renewed Civil War, and the mounting American military support to its ally in the region, what should the civilians in Lebanon think of?
Should Lebanon be opened to the ever mounting tension in the Middle East? Should we take part in an apparent show of force and fortifications on either sides of the Iranian-Syrian coalition or the American allies (Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt)? Should we care more about the Economical dangers coming ahead? Should we take more time to strengthen our local political, social and economical scene?
Well the future seems to be very far from bright at this moment. What is missing is a clear message to those who appointed themselves as the leaders of Lebanon. This message should be to put aside their personal and political problem and to bring the economy back on track.
The Lebanese then should reassess our political system, are we truly a democracy? and are our political parties relevant? Do these parties ask the right questions or put up the real challenges? The answer will be a clear no, our system is plagued by an old and outdated alignment between Lebanese. As if political parties were Football teams, since they represent the same structure and aspects. The current parties are sectarian, regional, feudal and none represent a modern political view.
In the process of redefining our political landscape, the society should form parties that reflect clear answers to the political choices Lebanon will be facing. And finally go to new elections, where Lebanese would have made their choice among those parties. Then the political parties and leaders will be judged upon their promises and their actual performance.
As one can notice, any solution to the Lebanese situation seems to be closer to an Utopian view. And that's what is pushing the Lebanese in two directions, either seriously considering leaving the country, or continuing in this vicious circle that led lately to clashes between supporters for both sides. Finally, everyone is looking at Sunday's elections for what it seems to be a step deeper into our national tragedy.
|
|
