Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader MP Michel Aoun said on September 10, answering reporters' questions, that party members possessed personal arms "like the rest of the Lebanese," saying that "these weapons exist and are for self-defense and not to be used to carry out military operations."

Aoun, however, denied that his followers underwent military or combat training as had been suggested.

Retired Army General Elias Hanna said any armed clash within predominantly Christian areas will resemble the battles which raged between the Lebanese Army and Lebanese Forces militia in the final years of the 1975-90 Civil War, "which pitted brother against brother and father against son."

Hanna told The Daily Star Tuesday the danger point will be in the final minutes before midnight on November 24, failing the election a new president.

"The March 14 forces will elect a new president and the opposition's response will be civil disobedience at the very least, this uprising against the president could lead to a military clash," he said.

Hanna said the real danger emerges when militias become organized and structured and set up major training camps.

"The danger is when the flow of arms increases and becomes more regular and organized and with it an increase in the caliber of the weapons as happened before 1975, right now its limited to AK-47s, which are plentiful," he said.

Although the current climate, based on media reports, may seem to resemble pre-1975 military preparations, Hanna is quick to point out differences.

"In 1975 you had the Palestinians and you did not have a major armed Lebanese force like Hizbullah; today there is deep US involvement and there are international resolutions; you have Shiites aligned with Maronites and Sunnis aligned with Maronites; now it would be a very different civil war," he said.

A report published in An-Nahar in early September charged that members of Aoun's FPM and two pro-Syrian factions were receiving military training in the Bekaa Valley and in Jbeil.  It stated that Hizbullah is training followers of Syrian-backed former ministers Zaher Khatib and Wiam Wahab at bases in the Bekaa Valley.

According to the report, every batch of recruits undergo six days of military training, while FPM followers receive two days of military training on weekends at bases in Jbeil from former Lebanese Army officers.

Recruits are then formed into squads of seven to 10 members each and armed with "Iranian-made" Kalashnikov assault rifles, the report added. Training focuses on recruits from the Aley, Chouf, Kharroub and southern Metn provinces in addition to recruits from the northern Metn and Kesrouan provinces.

FPM MP Ibrahim Kanaan denied categorically that the party is arming or training its followers, as some have claimed.

"What General Aoun said is that individual FPM members own personal weapons in their homes," Kanaan told The Daily Star, stressing that arming a militia requires a budget and very different types of weapons than personal arms.

"These accusations are part of the ongoing propaganda launched against us, its started with ludicrous accusations when they tried to find a link between us and Iran and Syria ... they failed to link us with any external forces," Kanaan said.

Kanaan said the FPM's memorandum of understanding with Hizbullah is a road map to integrating Hizbullah's arms within the Lebanese Army, adding that the FPM's core belief is that arms outside the state are destructive.

"Let the government do its duty and say who [is arming and training] and refer them to the judiciary - you cannot issue accusations equally to all sides," Kanaan said.

Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has accused the FPM of getting military training at Hizbullah bases. Hizbullah denied charges by Geagea that it is involved in arming and training recruits from allied factions of the opposition.

Lebanese Forces MP Georges Adwan said that the Lebanese Forces is not armed and will never arm itself "whatever happens." Adwan told The Daily Star that the Lebanese Forces believe only the Lebanese state should possess arms.

"We are a political party, it is the state's duty to protect its citizens. Security reports presented to the Cabinet have proved the Lebanese Forces is not arming or training followers," he said.

The government is developing a policy to confront terrorist threats and warned against falling into the trap of civil strife, noting that various factions were arming and training.

Information Minister Ghazi Aridi told reporters Monday that the seven-hour Cabinet meeting, in which top intelligence and security officers took part, discussed the situation in depth -  efforts he said would help forge a policy to thwart terrorism and threats against the country.

Aridi said that opposition factions were training followers on the use of weapons, while other majority aligned factions, mostly private security firms, were involved in training but not on the use of weapons.

"Political differences between the various political factions is normal, but resorting to weapons and the logic of force and threats of confrontation and war is rejected by all," Aridi said, urging all sides not to resort to choices that proved catastrophic in the past.


By Hani M. Bathish
Daily Star staff
http://dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=85591